Predictions // 92nd ACADEMY AWARDS - September 2019

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Last updated: September 29, 2019


Taika Waititi's Jojo Rabbit doesn't seem as audience-friendly as last year's TIFF People's Choice Award winner, Green Book. But, it does seem divisive enough to stand the test of time as a conversation piece that could give it a boost in the Oscars race. Either way, its win at TIFF immediately means it has to be considered a Best Picture contender, if not for any reason other than the TIFF award has one of the best track records of any other precursor.


If that's an easy shoo-in for Waititi, the reviews of other festival films are earning enough praise that they, also, are Best Picture contenders for sure, at this point. Martin Scorsese's The Irishman defied the long run-time odds to become a 'masterpiece,' as some critics and industry pros are putting it (including Oscar-winning directors like Guillermo del Toro). Netflix is releasing the film and planning to give it some fanfare, like last year's Roma, if not more. But, unlike last year, Netflix has Marriage Story to promote, as well. The Noah Baumbach drama is earning raves for its quiet, but powerful, turns from its stars, like Scarlett Johansson, Adam Driver, and Laura Dern.


In Best Picture, A24 is on the cusp of nominations for upcoming drama Waves and its summer hit The Farewell. Also still waiting in the wings is 20th Century Fox's Ford V Ferrari. And, don't count out Judy, the Judy Garland biopic that opens wide opposite Joker in a few weeks. Either of those films could solely be performance nominees, but could also go all the way if box office and reviews match up.


As for predictions, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood is still getting the vote here. Its summer box office was smashing, which always helps, it received rave reviews, which always helps, it stars bonafide movie stars in awards-worthy performances, which majorly helps, and it's about Hollywood, which is almost a guarantee. Quentin Tarantino sits on the scale of cinephiles and wide audiences, so he's also a safe bet when it comes to the overall average vote, a defining factor in how Best Picture is tabulated.


In other categories, the biggest difference is the absence of The Goldfinch, following Its poor reviews and abysmal box office performance. Nicole Kidman had been considered a Supporting Actress contender, but Jennifer Lopez has now swooped in for Hustlers.


Check-in each week for updated predictions. BOLD indicates predicted winners.


To see March 2019's predictions, click here.

To see April 2019's predictions, click here.

To see May 2019's predictions, click here.

To see June 2019's predictions, click here.

To see July 2019's predictions, click here.

To see August 2019's predictions, click here.


BEST PICTURE


1917

Dir. Sam Mendes

Pippa Harris, Callum McDougall, Sam Mendes, Jayne-Ann Tenggren

(Universal Pictures)


A HIDDEN LIFE

Dir. Terrence Malick

Prods. Christoph Fisser, Josh Jeter, Marcus Loges, Henning Molfenter, Charlie Woebcken

(Awaiting US Distribution)


THE IRISHMAN

Dir. Martin Scorsese

Prods. Martin Scorsese, Robert De Niro, Jane Rosenthal, Gaston Pavlovich, Randall Emmett, Emma Tillinger Koskoff

(Netflix)


JOJO RABBIT

Dir. Taika Waititi

Prods. Taika Waititi, Carthew Neal, Chelsea Winstanley

(Fox Searchlight Pictures)


LITTLE WOMEN

Dir. Greta Gerwig

Prods. Denise Di Novi, Amy Pascal, Robin Swicord, Arnon Milchan

(Sony Pictures)


MARRIAGE STORY

Dir. Noah Baumbach

Prods. Noah Baumbach, David Heyman, Craig Shilowhich

(Netflix)


ONCE UPON A TIME IN HOLLYWOOD

Dir. Quentin Tarantino

Prods. Quentin Tarantino, David Heyman, Shannon McINtosh

(Sony Pictures)


PARASITE

Dir. Joon Ho Bong

Prods. Young-Hwan Jang, Kwak Sin-ae

(NEON)


THE REPORT

Dir. Scott Z. Burns

Prods. Scott Z. Burns, Jennifer Fox, Danny Gabai, Eddy Moretti, Kerry Orent, Steven Soderbergh, Michael Sugar

(Amazon Studios)



BEST DIRECTOR


Noah Baumbach

MARRIAGE STORY


Joon-Ho Bong

PARASITE


Sam Mendes

1917


Martin Scorsese

THE IRISHMAN


Quentin Tarantino

ONCE UPON A TIME IN HOLLYWOOD



BEST ACTRESS


Cynthia Erivo

HARRIET


Scarlett Johansson

MARRIAGE STORY


Saoirse Ronan

LITTLE WOMEN


Alfre Woodard

CLEMENCY


Renee Zellweger

JUDY



BEST ACTOR


Antonio Banderas

PAIN & GLORY


Leonardo DiCaprio

ONCE UPON A TIME IN HOLLYWOOD


Adam Driver

MARRIAGE STORY


Joaquin Phoenix

JOKER


Jonathan Pryce

THE TWO POPES



BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS


Annette Bening

THE REPORT


Laura Dern

MARRIAGE STORY


Jennifer Lopez

HUSTLERS


Margot Robbie

ONCE UPON A TIME IN HOLLYWOOD


Meryl Streep

THE LAUNDROMAT



BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR


Willem Dafoe

THE LIGHTHOUSE


Tom Hanks

A BEAUTIFUL DAY IN THE NEIGHBORHOOD


Leslie Odom Jr.

HARRIET


Joe Pesci

THE IRISHMAN


Brad Pitt

ONCE UPON A TIME IN HOLLYWOOD



BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY


THE FAREWELL

Lulu Wang


MARRIAGE STORY

Noah Baumbach


ONCE UPON A TIME IN HOLLYWOOD

Quentin Tarantino


PARASITE

Joon-Ho Bong, Jin Won Han


QUEEN & SLIM

Lena Waithe, James Frey



BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY


THE IRISHMAN

Steven Zaillian


JOJO RABBIT

Taika Waititi


THE LAST THING HE WANTED

Dee Rees, Marco Villalobos


LITTLE WOMEN

Greta Gerwig


THE TWO POPES

Anthony McCarten



BEST ORIGINAL SCORE


1917

Thomas Newman


AD ASTRA

Max Richter


HARRIET

Terence Blanchard


A HIDDEN LIFE

James Newton Howard


STAR WARS: THE RISE OF SKYWALKER

John Williams



BEST ORIGINAL SONG


ALADDIN

"Speechless"


FROZEN II

"TBD"


QUEEN & SLIM

"TBD"


TOY STORY 4

"The Ballad of the Lonesome Cowboy"


TOY STORY 4

"I Can't Let You Throw Yourself Away"



BEST ANIMATED FEATURE


ABONIMABLE

Prods. Suzanne Buirgy, Dave Polsky, Van Toffer, Jill Culton

(Universal Pictures)


FROZEN II

Prods. Peter Del Vecho, Jennifer Lee, Chris Buck

(Walt Disney Pictures)


MISSING LINK

Prods. Chris Butler, Travis Knight, Arianne Sutner

(Annapurna Pictures)


OKKO'S INN

Prods. Kitaro Kosaka, Shuhei Arai

(GKIDS)


TOY STORY 4

Prods. Jonas Rivera, Mark Nielsen

(Disney/Pixar)



BEST INTERNATIONAL FILM


BENEDETTA

(Netherlands)


EMA

(Chile)


MONOS

(Colombia)


PAIN & GLORY

(Spain)


PARASITE

(South Korea)



BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE


APOLLO 11

Prods. Todd Douglas Miller, Thomas Petersen, Evan Krauss

(NEON)


AQUARELA

Prod. Victor Kossakovsky

(Sony Pictures Classics)


LOVE, ANTOSHA

Prods. J.J. Abrams, John Cho, Jodie Foster, Martin Landau

(United Talent Agency)


MAIDEN

Prods. Victoria Gregory, Alex Holmes

(Sony Pictures Classics)


ROLLING THUNDER REVUE: A BOB DYLAN STORY BY MARTIN SCORSESE

Prod. Bob Dylan

(Netflix)



BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY


1917

Roger Deakins


AD ASTRA

Hoyte Van Hoytema


A HIDDEN LIFE

Jorg Widmer


THE IRISHMAN

Rodrigo Prieto


ONCE UPON A TIME IN HOLLYWOOD

Robert Richardson



BEST VISUAL EFFECTS


AD ASTRA

Christopher Downs, Jiwoong Kim, Bradley Parker


AVENGERS: ENDGAME

Dan DeLeeuw, Russell Earl, Kelly Port, Daniel Sudick


THE IRISHMAN

Pablo Helman, Jiwoong Kim


THE LION KING

Robert Legato, Elliot Newman, Adam Valdez


STAR WARS: THE RISE OF SKYWALKER

Roger Guyett, Dominic Tuohy



BEST PRODUCTION DESIGN


1917

Dennis Gassner


CATS

Eve Stewart


HARRIET

Warren Alan Young, Marthe Pineau


LITTLE WOMEN

Claire Kaufman


ONCE UPON A TIME IN HOLLYWOOD

Barbara Ling, Nancy Haigh



BEST COSTUME DESIGN


1917

Jacqueline Durran


ALADDIN

Michael Wilkinson


DOLEMITE IS MY NAME

Ruth E. Carter


ONCE UPON A TIME IN HOLLYWOOD

Arianne Phillips


ROCKETMAN

Julian Day



BEST MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING


ALADDIN

Christine Blundell


HARRIET

Belinda Anderson, Angie Wells


JOKER

Nicki Ledermann, Kay Georgiou


ONCE UPON A TIME IN HOLLYWOOD

Janine Rath, Heba Thorisdottir


ROCKETMAN

Lizzie Georgiou, Elizabeth Yianni-Georgiou



BEST SOUND EDITING


1917

TBD


AD ASTRA

Grant Elder


FORD V FERRARI

TBD


ONCE UPON A TIME IN HOLLYWOOD

Harry Cohen, Leo Marcil


STAR WARS: THE RISE OF SKYWALKER

David Acord, Matthew Wood



BEST SOUND MIXING


1917

TBD


AVENGERS: ENDGAME

Tom Johnson, Juan Peralta, Douglas Parker


FORD V. FERRARI

Richard Bullock, Jr., Paul Massey, Steven Morrow


ONCE UPON A TIME IN HOLLYWOOD

Michael Minkler


STAR WARS: THE RISE OF SKYWALKER

Ben Burtt, Andy Nelson



BEST LIVE-ACTION SHORT FILM


Predictions to be announced soon.



BEST ANIMATED SHORT


Predictions to be announced soon.



BEST DOCUMENTARY SHORT


Predictions to be announced soon.


© 2018 by Scottie Knollin.

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